Main reason. Iranian leaders might be fanatics. They might care more for their ambitions and imperialism and hegemony more than about the welfare of their people, but they are not stupid.
They have watched the riots in their own streets, the anti-Iran demonstrations and riots in Iraq, and the growing strength and resolve of their Arab enemies and Israel, and this morning, they saw the celebrations in Iraqi streets at hearing that Iranian leader Soleimani was dead.
So, my guess is that they will decide that it’s time to back off a bit.
And they need to be concerned. Because if a war is precipitated, there are lots of things the US and the regional powers can do to destroy Iran’s regime.
Sanctions can be increased. — For example, Iran can be removed from access to the International monetary transfer mechanisms making it impossible for Iran to pay bills or to receive payment – unless someone does like Obama did and load a plane with cash for everything. Sanctions can be imposed banning the sale of any Iranian oil. Sanctions can be placed against any European companies that do business with Iran, banning them from any business in the USA or other countries that join the sanctions regime.
Military action against Iranian surrogates, from Hezbollah to the Houtis can be escalated from the weak efforts that have been so far made to more active and punitive efforts to destroy them, their bases, and their ability to make war. No half measures. No allowing the presence of civilians to allow combatant terrorists to remain safe.
And all this is short of attacking Iranian territory itself.
So, we’ll see. Are the Ayatollahs fools or not.
Reuven Efraim
www.John1911.com
“Shooting Guns & Having Fun”
Business Consultant,Libertarian, Historian, Economist, Special interest in Foreign Policy.
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