Iranian Protests 2018

Some comments about the current protests going on in Iran.

If the police and security forces lose control of the situation, or if they cross over on the side of the protesters, that is not the beginning of the end. It is merely the end of the beginning.

At that point the Iranian government will have no choice but to call out the Revolutionary guard forces and the Al Quds Force. Then you develop one of two scenarios: Revolutionary guard forces against unarmed or lightly armed civilians. Revolutionary guard forces versus regular army units.

Iranian police. AKA Domestic security forces.

Whatever happens next, or after that, or after that isn’t really what is important here. Despite what western media might lead you to believe. It’s simply headline writing. The government of Iran is likely to end up in one of two places. The Mullahs in power. Or the military in power.

Iranian Regular Army

We know what the Mullahs look like. So what do you think the military is going to look like if they take control? Is a General George Washington going to come down from the mountain and make Iran a secular state? Perhaps a modern day Ataturk?

Here’s a clue, folks. There is a reason why George Washington is one of the greatest figures in the history of the world. He had all the power, and walked away. And he did it for altruistic reasons.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Typical “second army” to keep “regular army” in check.

Instead of George Washington or Ataturk, Iran is likely to end up with some Podunk colonel or major general who turns into the next Saddam Hussein, Gadaffi, or Idi Amin. Actually worse: think Saddam Hussein with a God complex.

Best case scenario I am seeing is Iran falls into chaos and the Kurds living in north western Iran are able to break away and join with the Kurds in Iraq (aka Kurdistan).

And then you’ll see said God complex Podunk Colonel declare holy war against the Kurds, and blame it on the CIA. You know because everything is somehow my fault.

Dirt Billy’s gonna dirt Billy.

 

 

Marky
John1911.com
Shooting Guns & Having Fun”

Marky Mark

Marky Mark

Writer at John1911.com
Writer for john1911.com. Co-Host of the John1911 Podcast. Video content provider for John1911-TV.

Areas of focus: Defense and National Security, Modern Light Weapons, Analysis of the Geo-political / Military Relationship in the Context of Strategic Goals.
Marky Mark

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  • We all hope and wish for Iran to somehow magically change overnight. But unless the protesters can get at least one of three military groups (Quds, Army, Revolutionary Guard) to back them, they don’t have a likely chance of success. And even if they successfully get one of three to come to their side, they still have to defeat or marginalize 2 other “military groups” to win.

    You see, civilians in most parts of the worlds don’t have much in the way of small arms to protect themselves. In the US, we have the Second Amendment. That by itself is the de-facto “second army” to keep powers in check.

    Perhaps they will win? But in reality best case for the protesters is their leaders are picked off and the mojo taken out of the movement? Or worst case, we’ll see a second Tiananmen Square. But instead of the satellite images depicting the battle being classified out of public view. This will be the world’s first cell-phone-video slaughter.

    Think Faces of Death, 2018 style.

    Marky

    • Dan Graf

      Maybe Cellphones, that’s why they cut the Internet over there ?

      • You will find it’s damn hard to keep stuff off the internet. A common trick in the most restrictive regimes is to create and record locally, and then upload in a border region when you can get access across some line on some map.

        Marky

    • James Loane

      I don’t know your background or credentials. I listen to your point of view along with others and then try to decide which ( or which combination of perspectives) makes the most sense to me. The one thing I do know is that you seem to not show your face. Now you seem to imply CIA affiliation. Was this common knowledge or was this a slip.
      Now to the topic, IRAN. There will never be any long lasting piece without a dictator or all powerful ruling class. After Saddam we have almost total anarchy. Every regime change always seems to just change the murderer in charge. We always seem to push our ideals (Democracy) onto a culture not wired the way we are. A good portion of the world still values STRENGTH. A smooth talking , lets all hug and America is always wrong Capt. Vagina that just left office a year ago could never get elected in the mideast.
      I just hope for their sakes that the intelligent ones who can choose the right path socially and tactically will keep a low profile because they will be the first to disappear.

      • At no time have I stated or implied, directly or indirectly; any affiliation or contact with any group or organization. Be it government or private sector. At no time have I ever encouraged, ignored, proffered or let slide any comments indicating otherwise.

        I claim zero affiliations and refuse any collaborations.

        Everything I am. And everything I am not, is laid bare on these pages. An American civilian. That is the genesis of, “everything being my fault’. America.

        I am a middle-aged nobody who shoots guns and has fun.

        Thank you for your time.

        Marky
        John1911.com
        “Shooting Guns & Having Fun”