To save time, I am not giving URLs but you can easily find them yourself.
1, Moscova cruiser
1a. Russia says the ship is being towed to port and the crew was successfully evacuated.
1b. Ukraine says Moscova was hit by two Ukraine-design anti-ship missiles.
1c. Open source radio intercepts say only 55 of the 480 crew are confirmed rescued.
1d. After that catastrophic loss of lives, the ship must be sunk, right? Well, no. Neptune SSM (based on Russia Kh-35) has only a 150-kg warhead designed for warships 5000-ton and less warships. The ship could have taken two hits and not sunk. We know it capsized (said by Russia) and was floating on its side. Therefore potential recoverable.
1e. Contra point 1d: the ammunition magazines also blew up; the damage is much greater than 2 x 150-kg warheads. BTW, remember that to reduce warship weight, Russian warships carry significant ammunition on main deck level. So it really is possible the explosion was an accident.
1f. I estimate Ukraine has one Neptune battery with 4 launchers, each with 4 cells, with two more batteries being equipped.
1g. One media source grandly proclaims Russia has lost its largest warship. Not really. The 48,000-ton Typhoon SSBN Dimitry Donesky is largest. Hello, submarines are warships too.
1h. Moscova was hit in the 2008 Georgia war, but was repaired.
2. Latest US arms package includes
2a. 11 Mil-17s acquired for Afghanistan – significant.
2b 18 x 155mm howitzers – insignificant.
2c. 300 x Switchblade drones (on top of previous 100) – significant if 600 version (anti-tank), if 300 version only helpful.
2d. Counter battery radars. My intuitive estimate is that 4 were previously delivered, likely 4 more in package – useful.
3. Mauripol
3a. Ukraine admits some marines surrendered, but most of 36 Marine Brigade managed to link up with Azov battalion. (Remember: next you hear Azov = fascists, Russia has its Donbas fascist battalion = Sparta. and why should it matter to the media: Azov has put up a heroic fight in defense of its country. The real fascists, ironically, are Russian.
4. Possibility of Russia internal revolt.
4a. Is exactly zero.
4b. Russian internal propaganda is highly effective, news is tightly controlled. The average Russian is highly patriotic and believes s/he is fighting a mortal enemy.
Ravi
www.John1911.com
“Shooting Guns & Having Fun”
His latest, “An analysis of India’s ability to fight a 2-front war” (Amazon Kindle) is 184,000 words long and has sold five copies in three weeks. For him, that’s a best-seller.
Ravi is also a perpetual student, though he took his first bachelors only in 1994. He is currently doing a seventh masters, in Intelligence Management. Two PhD theses are held up because he hasn’t been able to pay fees.
- Ukraine Quick Update 6-20-22 - June 22, 2022
- Mariupol Order of Battle - May 2, 2022
- Ukraine update April 14, 2022 0900 US EDT - April 14, 2022
