I managed to expand the April 30 map of Azovstal made by Jomini of the West. If you look at it, you will see Russia has only 3 BTGs at this time after sending BTGs to reinforce the east. These BTGs are bound to be in less than optimum shape after the weeks of fighting Ukraine has the understrength 36 Marine Brigade and 12 National Guard Brigade which at full strength are 6 BTGs, now likely down to two.
Conclusion, there is no way Russia is going to take Mariupol unless the Russians add at least 4 BTG and are prepared to suffer the heavy losses inherent in storming such a heavily fortified. This is why they are bombing away, but Azovstal can take it.
If I read the map wrong, please tell me. My sight is not the best.
Ravi
www.John1911.com
“Shooting Guns & Having Fun”
His latest, “An analysis of India’s ability to fight a 2-front war” (Amazon Kindle) is 184,000 words long and has sold five copies in three weeks. For him, that’s a best-seller.
Ravi is also a perpetual student, though he took his first bachelors only in 1994. He is currently doing a seventh masters, in Intelligence Management. Two PhD theses are held up because he hasn’t been able to pay fees.
- Ukraine Quick Update 6-20-22 - June 22, 2022
- Mariupol Order of Battle - May 2, 2022
- Ukraine update April 14, 2022 0900 US EDT - April 14, 2022
