I managed to expand the April 30 map of Azovstal made by Jomini of the West. If you look at it, you will see Russia has only 3 BTGs at this time after sending BTGs to reinforce the east. These BTGs are bound to be in less than optimum shape after the weeks of fighting Ukraine has the understrength 36 Marine Brigade and 12 National Guard Brigade which at full strength are 6 BTGs, now likely down to two.
Conclusion, there is no way Russia is going to take Mariupol unless the Russians add at least 4 BTG and are prepared to suffer the heavy losses inherent in storming such a heavily fortified. This is why they are bombing away, but Azovstal can take it.
If I read the map wrong, please tell me. My sight is not the best.
“Shooting Guns & Having Fun”